It’s all starting to feel like very familiar territory now…

Nothing financially bad can ever happen again. The stock market feels nice and cozy. People continue to make money. What’s not to like when the price of assets can only go in one direction?

This is what it felt like in March 2000 before the dot-coms turned south. It was what it felt like in October 2007 before the S&P rolled over.

And that’s what has me a bit concerned. The caution signs are starting to pile up.

No Fear Here

The Bloomberg headline said it all: “Retail Investors Just Made a Historic Move Into U.S. Stocks.”

TD Ameritrade’s Retail Investors Just Made a Historic Move Into U.S. Stocks., culled from analysis of trading activity and customers’ accounts, hit an all-time high — the “largest single-month increase ever” — and the brokerage’s chief market strategist took note with this understatement: “The retail investor has become a bit more of a believer.”

Another sign popped up on CNBC a few weeks ago with the headline “No Fear Here.” An E-Trade survey of its customers hit a bullish extreme, with a record 71% of its high-net-worth individuals (those with $1 million or more in their accounts) expecting the fourth quarter to end higher than it started. Clearly the expectation among them is to continue to make money being long in the market.

What about the so-called “smart money”?

They’re taking money off the table and sounding the alarm: