Rate hike is back on the table, that too as early as this month, as per the latest comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen. The Fed altered her statement of monetary policy to “moderately accommodative” from “modestly accommodative”, used in her January speech, indicating that the easy money policy era is nearing an end.

As a result, the odds for a March rate hike skyrocketed to 82% from less than 20% a week ago, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool. The Fed stated that the economic data points over the past couple of months have been assuring with the economy growing at an above-average pace, job gains being robust, and inflation going up slightly. Particularly, Americans have an optimistic view of the economy with confidence hitting the highest level in more than 15 years. This is especially true as, the Conference Board consumer confidence index jumped to 114.8 in February from a revised 111.6 in January, suggesting growing optimism on pro-growth policies.

Further, global fundamentals have improved with resilient recovery in Europe, stabilizing China, and battling deflation in Japan that have receded fears of slowdown.

These good tidings have led to rising yields. Yields on 10-year Treasury notes logged in the largest weekly climb since November 10, rising 13.1 bps last week. The Strategas Research Partners chief investment strategist stated that the Trump administration policy mix is highly reflationary, which will steepen the yield curve over the next few years. The 10-year Treasury yields could rise up to 6% from the current 2.47%.

Against such a backdrop, investors are pulling their money out of the long-term bond market. That said, the ultra-popular iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT – Free Report) , with an asset base of around $5.2 billion and an average daily volume of around 10 million shares, saw capital outflow of nearly $412 million over the past week and shed 2%. The fund has a Zacks ETF Rank of 5 or ‘Strong Sell’ rating.

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