The New Zealand dollar struggled against the strength of the US dollar. The upcoming week is very busy, with the jobs report standing out. Here is an analysis of fundamentals and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD.
The sole release from New Zealand was trade balance, which disappointed with a deficit of 1.436 billion. In the US, data was mixed with GDP beating in the headline but missing on the internals.
Updates:
NZD/USD daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
Building Consents: Sunday, 21:45. The number of building approvals is a good gauge for the housing sector, despite some volatility. Consents dropped by 1% last time.
ANZ Business Confidence: Monday, 00:00. This 1500-strong survey advanced nicely in September, reaching 27.9 points, the highest since April 2015.
GDT Price Index: Tuesday, during the European afternoon. The price of milk has a significant impact on the kiwi dollar, as it is the country’s primary export. The bi-weekly Global Dairy Trade rose 1.4% last time.
New Zealand jobs data: Tuesday, 21:45. This is a quarterly report, very different from most countries that publish it on a monthly basis. The level of employment jumped by a solid 2.4% in Q2 2016, sending the unemployment rate down to 5.1%. We cannot expect such a strong outcome this time. Labor costs advanced 0.4% last time.
Inflation Expectations: Wednesday, 2:00. With official CPI inflation data published only once per quarter, this measure of inflation expectations fills some of the gap. In Q2, it stood on 1.7%.
ANZ Commodity Prices: Thursday, 00:00. While this publication plays second fiddle to milk prices, it still has an impact. The indicator increased by 5.1% last month. A more modest rise is likely now.
NZD/USD Technical Analysis
Kiwi/dollar was on the back foot, capped by 0.7160 (mentioned last week) before sliding lower.
Technical lines, from top to bottom:
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