The Conference Board’s Employment Trends Index – which forecasts employment for the next 6 months improved with the author’s saying “The bounce back in the Employment Trends Index in October was one of the largest monthly increases ever“.

Analyst Opinion of Conference Board’s Employment Index

Econintersect evaluates year-over-year change of this index (which is different than the headline view) – as we do with our own employment index. The year-over-year index growth rate improved from last month. However, our index’s growth declined.

Note that the Econintersect Employment Index is not based on employment data.

From the Conference Board:

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) increased sharply in October, after declining in September and August. The index now stands at 135.57, up from 132.86 (an upward revision) in September. The change represents a 5.4 percent gain in the ETI compared to a year ago.

“The bounce back in the Employment Trends Index in October was one of the largest monthly increases ever, and comes after two declines because of the hurricanes,” said Gad Levanon, Chief Economist, North America, at The Conference Board. “As expected, the ETI picked up and continued its strong upward trend, suggesting that employment growth will remain solid in the coming months.”

October’s increase in the ETI was fueled by positive contributions from all eight components. From the largest positive contributor to the smallest, these were: Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance, Percentage of Firms with Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now, Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers, Industrial Production, Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales, Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry, Consumer Confidence “Jobs Hard to Get” Percentage, and Job Openings.

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