Initial Reaction 

This report was a veritable disaster. Although the establishment survey sported 142,000 jobs it was much weaker than expected. Downward revisions for the last two months totaled 59,000.

The labor force fell by 350,000 driving the participation rate to a 40-year low. Government jobs rose 24,000 so private payrolls accounted for a mere 118,000 jobs. Weekly hours ticked down by 0.1 hours.

Topping off the disastrous set of numbers, employment declined by 236,000. 

Consensus Estimates 

The Bloomberg Consensus estimate was 203,000 jobs.

Revisions 

Last month I noted, the preceding two months were revised up by 44,000. It seems something went wrong.

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised from +245,000 to +223,000, and the change for August was revised from +173,000 to +136,000. With those revisions, employment gains in July and August combined were 59,000 less than previously reported. 

BLS Jobs Statistics at a Glance 

  • Nonfarm Payroll: +142,000 – Establishment Survey
  • Employment: -236,000 – Household Survey
  • Unemployment: -114,000 – Household Survey
  • Involuntary Part-Time Work: -447,000 – Household Survey
  • Voluntary Part-Time Work: +211,000 – Household Survey
  • Baseline Unemployment Rate: +0.0 at 5.1% – Household Survey
  • U-6 unemployment: -0.3 to 10.0% – Household Survey
  • Civilian Non-institutional Population: +229,000
  • Civilian Labor Force: -350,000 – Household Survey
  • Not in Labor Force: +579,000 – Household Survey
  • Participation Rate: -0.2 to 62.4 – Household Survey (a 40-year low)

    • September 2015 Employment Report 

    Please consider the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Current Employment Report.

    Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 142,000 in September, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care and information, while mining employment fell. 

    Unemployment Rate – Seasonally Adjusted

    Print Friendly, PDF & Email

    Related Posts