The Chinese Manufacturing PMI spent most of the past four and a half years straddling just the good side of 50. In fact, it hasn’t been above 52 since early 2012 – a quite remarkable feat of low variation. This fruitlessness is somewhat emblematic of China’s dilemma; no matter what they do the industrial and manufacturing sector will not catch fire. And that may be the best that can be said of the monetary and fiscal “stimulus” since that time, for at least the bedrock of China’s economy was maintained in something like zombification for so long. Of course, it took great cost in bubble and debt terms to accomplish so little, but I am trying to be charitable.

The difference in the PMI isn’t really that it might be below 50 but rather that it lingers and has remained below 50. That trend, which is all that PMI’s might be able to suggest, starting in 2015 but really the second half is what is important.

China’s factory activity skidded to a three-year low point in January, adding to further gloom about the state of the world’s second-largest economy.

The government-compiled January manufacturing purchasing manager’s index (PMI) came in at 49.4, slightly missing Reuters consensus estimates for a 49.6 reading and ticking down from December’s 49.7 figure. It was the weakest result since 2012 and marked the sixth straight month in contraction territory.

  The mood was worsened by a private survey by Caixin and Markit that showed January manufacturing activity shrinking for the eleventh straight month. Caixin’s survey, which tracks smaller firms than the official indicator, came in at 48.4, compared to December’s reading of 48.2.

In these kinds of data points, recessions show as not the absolute changes but how long those changes remain in place. For a PMI to stick below 50 for eleven or six straight months (in the case of the NBS “official” PMI) only suggests that there are recessionary tendencies already at work. It is the duty of a broad survey of indications to find corroboration, which in China is no difficult task.