Below is a summary of my post-CPI tweets.
core CPI +0.21%, higher than expected. y/y core to 1.89%.
core services up to 2.7%; core goods remains at -0.5%
The rise in core CPI #inflation is no surprise to anyone watching Median. But a surprise to many apparently.
Owners’ Equiv (3.09% from 3.02%), Primary Rent (3.71% v 3.62%), Lodging Away from Home (1.94% v 1.69%).
Overall housing 2.12% vs 2.02% last month. All in keeping with established trends and unsurprising; this has further to go.
Medical Care approx unch (2.45% y/y); Recreation unch (0.64%); Apparel down slightly.
within Medical, medical drugs decelerated to 2.9% from 3.5%, but professional services and health insurance counteracted that.
Core #inflation ex-housing up to 1% vs 0.9%. That’s low but highest it has been since last July.
Worth pointing out: derivatives markets are pricing core CPI to be below 1.5%, compounded, for 8yrs. It’s above that now.
…and implied core for the next year is below zero (even after today’s rally so far). Core deflation is not happening.
US (headline) #Inflation mkt pricing: 2015 0.5%;2016 1.3%;then 1.6%, 1.7%, 1.7%, 1.8%, 2.0%, 2.1%, 2.2%, 2.3%, & 2025:2.3%.
So Fed, what do you believe? the market or your own lying eyes? They’re focused on headline now so their deflation worries persist.
This is a fun chart. Note that about half of the weight of CPI is inflating >3%. But 12% is deflating.
That’s why median matters.
Warning: Back of the envelope on Median CPI suggests chance of +0.3%; would imply Median would go to post-crisis high near 2.5%.
My back-of-the-envelope lacks seasonal adjustment for regional housing indices but it has been pretty close recently.
Cleveland Median CPI +0.3%, +2.5% y/y. QED.
inflation is now officially higher than it has been since 2009, on the way down.
And Fed to continue to do nothing about it.
Median CPI thru this month. In line with what we have been forecasting. Any questions?
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