December-2015 Gold futures recently bottomed @ 1065 yesterday (Nov-23-2015). Earlier today (Nov-24-2015) rallied to as high as 1080.70. So is this rally for real?

Today’s geopolitical issue, which involved Turkey’s shooting down a Russian fighter jet in violation of its sovereign airspace, ignited the fear trade and flight to safety that is so characteristic of precious metals. However, as much as I would like to label this a genuine rally, I must say no.

Gold is oversold and we have nothing more than a dead cat bounce unless it can break the resistance of the upper channel downtrend. Even if it does so, the secular trend remains bearish, especially against the backdrop of rising rates. If you’re a nimble trader, go for it. Otherwise, support for Gold is @ 1065-1062 levels and then @ 1038. (See chart below for potential upside targets on Gold)