Week 48 of 2016 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) improved according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. Long term rolling averages remain in contraction – but the 4 week rolling average remains in positive territory.

Analyst Opinion of the Rail Data

We review this data set to understand the economy. If coal and grain are removed from the analysis, rail over the last 6 months been declining around 5% – but this week was 0.5 %. Still the growth is nothing to write home about.

The contraction in rail counts began over one year ago, and now rail movements are being compared against weaker 2015 data – and this is the cause periodic acceleration in the short term rolling averages. Still, rail is weak to very week compared to previous years.

This analysis is looking for clues in the rail data to show the direction of economic activity – and is not necessarily looking for clues of profitability of the railroads. The weekly data is fairly noisy, and the best way to view it is to look at the rolling averages (carloads and intermodal combined).

  Percent current rolling average is larger than the rolling average of one year ago Current quantities accelerating or decelerating Current rolling average accelerating or decelerating compared to the rolling average one year ago 4 week rolling average +1.3 % accelerating accelerating 13 week rolling average -2.1 % accelerating accelerating 52 week rolling average -6.5 % accelerating decelerating

A summary of the data from the AAR: