Week 16 of 2017 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) improved according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. The economically intuitive sectors declined.

Analyst Opinion of the Rail Data

We review this data set to understand the economy. If coal and grain are removed from the analysis, rail over the last 6 months been declining around 5% – but this week declined 0.4 % (meaning that the predicitive economic elements declined year-over-year). Also consider rail movements are below 2015 levels – even though they are above 2016 levels.

The following graph compares the rail economically intuitive sectors vs. total movements:

This analysis is looking for clues in the rail data to show the direction of economic activity – and is not necessarily looking for clues of profitability of the railroads. The weekly data is fairly noisy, and the best way to view it is to look at the rolling averages (carloads [including coal and grain] and intermodal combined).

  Percent current rolling average is larger than the rolling average of one year ago Current quantities accelerating or decelerating Current rolling average accelerating or decelerating compared to the rolling average one year ago 4 week rolling average +5.7 % decelerating decelerating 13 week rolling average +4.9 % decelerating decelerating 52 week rolling average -1.6 % accelerating accelerating

A summary of the data from the AAR:

The Association of American Railroads (AAR) today reported U.S. rail traffic for the week ending April 22, 2017.

For this week, total U.S. weekly rail traffic was 515,131 carloads and intermodal units, up 4.7 percent compared with the same week last year.

Total carloads for the week ending April 22 were 257,283 carloads, up 11.6 percent compared with the same week in 2016, while U.S. weekly intermodal volume was 257,848 containers and trailers, down 1.3 percent compared to 2016.

Six of the 10 carload commodity groups posted an increase compared with the same week in 2016. They included coal, up 30.9 percent to 76,864 carloads; grain, up 28.7 percent to 23,521 carloads; and metallic ores and metals, up 12.8 percent to 25,194 carloads. Commodity groups that posted decreases compared with the same week in 2016 included motor vehicles and parts, down 11 percent to 17,030 carloads; petroleum and petroleum products, down 8.9 percent to 10,346 carloads; and miscellaneous carloads, down 6.4 percent to 8,913 carloads.

For the first 16 weeks of 2017, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 4,088,926 carloads, up 6.4 percent from the same point last year; and 4,170,327 intermodal units, up 1.5 percent from last year. Total combined U.S. traffic for the first 16 weeks of 2017 was 8,259,253 carloads and intermodal units, an increase of 3.8 percent compared to last year.