Personal Income and Outlays from the BEA, annotations by Mish
Weak Income, Strong SpendingThe Personal Income and Outlays report for September repeats the central theme for several months, weak income but strong spending anyway.
Personal Income

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)

PCE Price Index

Real Income and Spending Billions of Chained Dollars
Real Income and Outlays data from the BEA, chart by MishThe three rounds of massive fiscal stimulus is easily visible in the above chart. This fueled spending and inflation.

Real Personal Consumption Expenditures
Real PCE from the BEA chart by MishReal PCE continues unabated despite a drop in real DPI. Consumers dip into savings to support lifestyles.

Real Disposable Personal Income Excluding Transfers
Real DPI Excluding transfers data from BEA, chart by MishTransfers are free money handouts from the government. Transfers include Medicare, Medicaid, disability checks, and Social Security.Excluding transfers, real income has gone nowhere. It’s up less than half a percent in the last three months combines.The NBER, the official arbiter arbiter of recessions, uses Real DPI Excluding Transfers in its recession estimates.Blowout 4.9 Percent Increase in GDPAlso see Blowout 4.9 Percent Increase in GDP But Real Disposable Income Declines 1.0 PercentMore By This Author:Blowout 4.9 Percent Increase In GDP But Real Disposable Income Declines 1.0 Percent After 22 Days The House Finally Has A Speaker, Meet Mike Johnson New Home Sales Jump 12.3 Percent Smash Expectations