Today the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Composite Index decreased to 15 for the month of October, up from last month’s 29. Investing.com had forecast 25. Because of the highly volatile nature of this index, we include a 3-month moving average to facilitate the identification of trends, now at 22.7, which indicates expansion. The complete data series behind today’s Richmond Fed manufacturing report, which dates from November 1993, is available here.

Here is a snapshot of the complete Richmond Fed Manufacturing Composite series.

Here is the latest Richmond Fed manufacturing overview.

Fifth District manufacturing activity expanded moderately in October, according to the results from the most recent survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite index fell from 29 in September to 15 in August, as indexes for shipments and new orders dropped, while the third component, employment, rose. However, survey respondents were optimistic, expecting to see positive growth across most measures in the coming months. Because of the highly volatile nature of this index, we include a 3-month moving average to facilitate the identification of trends, now at 22.7 which indicates expansion. Link to Report

Here is a somewhat closer look at the index since the turn of the century.

Is today’s Richmond composite a clue of what to expect in the next PMI composite? We’ll find out when the next ISM Manufacturing survey is released (below).

Let’s compare all five Regional Manufacturing indicators. Here is a three-month moving average overlay of each since 2001 (for those with data).

Here is the same chart including the average of the five.

Here are the remaining monthly manufacturing indicators that we track:

Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS)

Kansas City Manufacturing Survey

Empire State Manufacturing Survey

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey