S&P 500 futures have started the second half solidly in the green, up 0.3% to 2,429, tracking European markets broadly in the green, while Asian stocks fell slightly and crude oil is little changed. With US markets set to close at 1pm today trading volumes in many markets remain light before Tuesday’s July 4th holiday and as investors await Friday’s report on the American jobs market. Traders will be looking at key upcoming economic data for validation of the hawkish shift from central banks that roiled markets last week. 

The Asian session opened with the Yen initially strengthens following Prime Minister Abe’s shocking election loss in the Tokyo Assembly elections, but later reversing gains to trade materially weaker at 112.95 last, on speculation Abe will be forced to inject more stimulus to salvage his standing amid a muted reaction to strongest Tankan survey since 2014. Australian 10-year yield rise four basis points; T-note yield two basis points firmer at 2.32%; shares in Tokyo and Sydney steady in narrow ranges. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan held steady, staying within a stone’s throw of a two-year peak hit last week. Japan’s Nikkei ticked up 0.1 percent, helped by the solid Tankan report.

In China, the PBOC drained liquidity for ninth day, pulling a net 70 billion yuan; Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and the Shanghai Composite climbed 0.1 percent amid concerns the world’s second-biggest economy could be slowing down. In Hong Kong financial shares benefited from the launch on Monday of the “Bond Connect” scheme linking China’s $9 trillion bond market with overseas investors. Industrial metals rose across the board after the Chinese Caixin Mfg PMI rebounded back into expansion territory, rising to 50.4 in June from 49.6 in May, and beating estimates.  Dalian iron ore 2.3% higher: the benchmark iron ore contract climbed on Friday for its best one-week gain since November and is up almost 22% from its $53.36 June 13 low, which by definition places it in a bull market. China’s bond connect program with Hong Kong will give offshore investors another way to access the mainland’s $10 trillion debt market.

European stocks started the new quarter with solid gains, rising for the first time in five days as oil and metal gains spurred energy companies and miners. Bank stocks rallied, supported by an FT report of a secret Brexit plan for financial services, sending the Stoxx Europe 600 Index solidly in the green, up 0.7% to 382.03, after suffering its biggest monthly loss in a year in June on worries over tightening monetary conditions. France’s CAC 40 index rose 0.8 percent, Spain’s IBEX 0.9 percent and Italy’s FTSE MIB 1 percent. Britain’s main FTSE 100 index added 0.3 percent.

European economic data showed a modest retreat with most final Eurozone PMIs backing off slightly from recent flash reading (except for Germany which printed at 59.6, above the 59.3 exp.). Final Eurozone Manufacturing PMI was at 57.4 in June (Flash: 57.3, May Final: 57.0), with a notable observation that Greece returned to expansion while job creation stayed close to May’s survey record.

While the final PMIs disappointed modestly from the preliminary prints, this is how Eurozone’s various mfg sentiment surveys close the month of June:

Meanwhile, unemployment in Italy rose to 11.3% in May, higher than the expectation of an unchanged 11.2% April print.

Crude was modestly in the green, climbing for an eighth day running, the longest winning streak this year extending gains after Baker Hughes data on Friday showed the number of active U.S. rigs falling for the first time in 24 weeks. WTI has climbed 8% in the past 8 days. Hedge fund wagers on lower prices in the week through June 27 increased at a slower pace than the two previous weeks, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, suggesting the bearish sentiment may be about to turn.  Prices surged last week while WTI and Brent still posted a monthly loss in June on concerns over rising global supply; Libyan production has climbed to more than 1m b/d for 1st time in 4 years.

“Given the recent upward momentum, it wouldn’t be surprising to see oil fairly close to some sort of downward correction,” says Ric Spooner, a market analyst at CMC Markets in Sydney. “Libya is probably close to its peak production. Nevertheless, the fact its output reached these levels faster than some had anticipated is a negative for the overall supply situation.”

Elsewhere, wheat jumped to a two-year high on the Chicago Board of Trade as agriculture markets soared on an expanding drought in the U.S. and disappointing data on sowed acreage.  Gold slipped 0.5 percent to $1,235.89 an ounce.

The yen fell 0.4 percent to 112.87 per dollar, after erasing an earlier advance of as much as 0.4 percent. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.3 percent after dropping 1 percent last week and touching the lowest level since October. The euro, which hit 14-month highs against the dollar last week after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi hinted at tweaks to the bank’s bond-buying stimulus program, fell 0.3 percent to $1.1394.

The pound finally fell 0.4% to $1.2973 after an eight-day rally…

… following weaker than expected June PMI data (54.3, vs Exp. 56.3, Last 56.3).

The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose one basis point to 2.31 percent, adding to a 16-basis point surge last week, the steepest since March. U.K. 10-year yields added two basis points to 1.27 percent.  While French and German 10-year yields fell one basis point, the hawkish sentiment hardly looks exhausted, with 0.50% on the 10Y Bund looking increasingly likely.