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Starbucks Corporation (NSDQ:SBUX), the coffee chain with more than 24,000 stores around the world spread across 74 countries, has been under pressure to improve its sagging same-store sales numbers. After watching its same-store sales figures grow in excess of 6% for the last three years, Starbucks is now expecting mid-single digit growth for fiscal 2016.

Were Q3 Comps an Anomaly?

Same-store sales growth in the first three quarters read 9%, 6% and 4% year-on-year, respectively, and the downward trend is what concerns investors the most. The slowdown was clearly not what Starbucks had expected for the year, and the company revised its guidance slightly downwards. It is now expecting full year comps to come in at mid-single digit growth instead of the previously expected growth of above mid-single digit.

“On today’s call, we will demonstrate with clarity and specificity why our U.S. comps in Q3 were an anomaly, and that we have clear line of sight to returning our business to historic levels of comp growth, which has been at or above 5% for the past 25 consecutive quarters”.– Howard Schultz during the third quarter earnings call.

U.S. Comps for Q3 came in at 4%, the worst number Starbucks has reported in the last five years. CEO Howard Schultz called that an anomaly while discussing third quarter results. But to prove that to be an outlier, Starbucks has to get its numbers back to old levels when the company reports fourth-quarter results on November 3, 2016 after the markets close.

This will be the single most important metric to watch during the fourth quarter results, and if Starbucks reports anything less than 5% comparable store sales in the U.S., it will definitely raise questions over a further slowdown, putting enormous downward pressure on Starbucks stock. If it goes above 5% then Q3 can, indeed, be thought of as an anomaly, thereby relieving the pressure on the stock, which has already lost one tenth of its value since the start of this year.