Those who were caught off guard by the August-September correction ignored a deluge of fundamental, technical and economic data. (See August’s Market Top: 15 Warning Signs.) Median U.S. stock valuations had surpassed 2000 and 2007. Technical deterioration in market breadth virtually guaranteed a precipitous drop in the benchmarks. And the “decoupled-from-the-rest-of-the-world” U.S. economy? Feeble wage growth, waning consumer sentiment, stalling retail sales, revenue contraction at U.S. businesses and a free-fall in U.S. manufacturing challenged the notion that the domestic economy’s foundation remained solid. (See September’s 13 Economic Charts That Wall Street Doesn’t Want You To See.)

In spite of unambiguous evidence, naysayers continued to tout the positives. They’d insist that the consumer – who accounts for roughly 70% of U.S. economic output – is vigorous. They’d chat up housing price gains, new home sales and homebuilder confidence. Perhaps most notably, they’d point to the 5.1% unemployment rate as “Exhibit A” in a robust rebound.

In recent commentary, I challenged the idea that consumption is as resilient as the media portray. For one thing, the Conference Board’s Consumer Sentiment Survey sits at its lowest point of 2015, with the Future Expectations sub-index declining at a faster clip than the Current Situation sub-index. For another, wage growth at its slowest year-over-year rate since 1982, forcing middle class Americans to hope that gas prices and interest rates both remain lower for longer. Unfortunately, the Federal Reserve seems hell-bent on raising borrowing costs before ultimately lowering them in the near future, if only to declare a hollow victory.

I could spend a great deal of time debunking the idea that the consumer can afford to be as active going forward as he/she had been earlier in the recovery. Instead, I will let the current retail data do the heavy lifting.

“Well, Gary,” some have written to me (and I am paraphrasing here). “You’ve done a remarkable job highlighting global stagnation and domestic sluggishness. But you must acknowledge that housing is in spectacular shape and that 5.1% unemployment is wonderful.” I wish that I could acknowledge those things. I really do.

Let’s start with the real estate ruse. Surging prices on property values reflect the same thing that record high stock prices reflect; that is, $7.5 trillion in federal government spending coupled with $3.5 trillion in U.S. Federal Reserve quantitative easing as well as seven years of zero-bound rate policy reflated the prices of key assets (e.g., stocks, real estate, etc.). Wealthy individuals benefited the most from the stimulus. Circa 2011-2013, second home buyers and foreign investors fueled the rebirth of real estate. I was one of them. I picked up a mixed-use property via short sale for roughly 40% less than the current asking price for a comparable mixed-use home.