Despite the skepticism of some market analysts, Tesla has recently confirmed that its highly anticipated Model 3 vehicle will indeed debut at a price point of $35,000. It is worth pointing out that any additional extras will bump the price up significantly, and that the $35,000 figure absolutely refers to the base Model 3 unit.

Massive tax subsidy

But the fact that the federal government offers a $7,500 tax subsidy to purchasers of the Model 3, means that environmentally friendly car consumers will be able to purchase a Model 3 for $27,500. Additionally, further tax credits in certain states across the United States will ensure that the purchase price of this vehicle is even lower than this already competitive number.

This is all fantastic news for potential Tesla consumers, but it is also important for purchasers of the vehicle to understand that the $7,500 tax credit won’t be available in perpetuity. Instead, the law that governs easy tax incentive indicates that the $7,500 tax credit will expire once a particular car manufacturer manages to shift 200,000 eligible vehicles in the United States.

Once this figure has been achieved, the amount that can be claimed by a tax credit diminishes significantly. In the immediate aftermath of the 200,000 unit mark being breached, the tax credit applied to the vehicle will be reduced to $3,750 for six months and then to $1,875 for the next six-month period.

So consumers who shell out for a Model 3 will only receive the full tax threshold before the 200,000th vehicle is sold by the electric car manufacturer. So what Tesla consumers will be extremely keen to know is…when indeed it will Tesla pass the 200,000 sales barrier in the United States?

US Tesla figures

In order to answer this question, one must acknowledge an immediate technical difficulty. Tesla doesn’t break down sales figures to individual countries, which complicates matters. However, one keen Tesla analyst, Fred Lambert at Electrek, has been working on the issue, and has calculated some fascinating projections regarding Tesla reaching the 200,000 milestone.