Which one should you heed?

Volatility, volatility, volatility. It’s all the financial world can talk about lately… and, well, for good reason. In the past few months, the world’s stock markets have endured some of the most gut-wrenching price swings since the 2007-2009 financial crisis.

But for many investors, it’s still not clear what this volatility means for the status of the bull market in U.S. stocks.

The reason why said status remains unclear is in large part because the mainstream pundits haven’t exactly been consistent with their punditing. (Note: NOT a real word!)

Take, for example, this summer. Before U.S. stocks fell off the cliff this August, the market was about as volatile as a yoga retreat. The trend was a slow, calm, and steady ascension to a higher self. In fact, the ultimate “fear gauge” known as the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) had dipped below 12 for the first time since 2014.

Now, according to the usual experts, this extended period of market calm was a bullish sign, as these news items from the time explain:

“Market Volatility Hits 2015 Low… U.S. stock investors haven’t had much need for those crash helmets… It’s looking like the market could be in for many more months of muted swings.” (May 22 CNBC)

“Investors wo paid up for options in anticipation of volatility have lost money in the last three years, so as a result, no one is anxious to do it anymore.” (May 13 Wall Street Journal)

“One of the more bullish indicators has been volatility, and it remains that way. Stocks can continue to advance as long as volatility isn’t trending upward.” (June 23 MarketWatch)

Got it? Low volatility is a bull’s best ally.

But wait! Come August, the yoga-retreat-like market went from “Om” to “Oh My!!” via triple-digit daily leaps and losses (oh yeah, and one quadruple-digit intraday drop on August 24).