Are U.S. Treasury yields up or down from a year ago? The answer is yes: Both.

Reader David asks “Are we in a recession? According to the yield curve we might already be. I’m in Cleveland so it is hard to tell since we’ve been in a recession since about 1998.”

Daily Treasury Yields 2013 to Present Daily Chart

Monthly Treasury Yields 1998-Present

No Recession Indicator Yet

The yield curve has not inverted (shorter-term treasuries yielding more than longer-term treasuries), and that’s the typical recession indicator.

However, we have had recessions where the yield curve did not invert before the recession started. And we have also had inversions without a recession.

My playbook has always been the next recession will start without an inversion, but it is now increasingly likely the Fed will hike right up to the point they start slashing rates like mad, just as happened in the housing bust.

Please also see my post from a few days ago: Yield Curve to Completely Flatten in 2018: But How?