There are a couple of things that are simply hard to conceive currently. The first is that there are only SEVEN (7) Monday’s left until Christmas. The second is that the Federal Reserve is seriously discussing increasing interest rates given the current economic weakness both domestic and global. 

While many of more mainstream outlets continue to “hope” that we are on the cusp of economic resurgence, as I penned earlier this week, the EOCI index suggests something quite different.

(Note: The EOCI Index is a combined measure of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (85 subcomponents), the ISM manufacturing and services index, the Fed regional manufacturing surveys, the Leading Economic Indicators index and the NFIB small business survey. Combined these measures give a broad sense of actual economic activity.)

“Despite hopes of a stronger rates of economic growth, it appears that the domestic economy is weakening considerably as the effects of a global deflationary slowdown wash back onto the U.S. economy.”

Of course, while mainstream analysts and writers cling to each comment from the Fed as if it were gospel, it should be remembered that Ms. Yellen and her cohorts can not “tell the whole truth.”

Imagine for a moment that Janet Yellen climbed up to the podium and said:

“After many years of ultra-accommodative polices, it is clear that ongoing interventions have failed to boost actual economic growth and only exacerbated the destruction of the middle class. It is clear that employment growth has only been a function of population growth, as witnessed by the ongoing decline in the labor-force participation rates and the surging levels of individuals that have fallen out of the work-force. While we will continue to operate to foster maximum employment and price stability, the reality is that the economy overall remains far to weak to sustain higher interest rates or any tightening of monetary policy.”