WTI keeps dead-cat-bouncing thanks to the algos and crashing thanks to reality. This morning’s reality check on the overnight ramp comes courtesy of a double-whammy from Goldman (“wouldn’t be surprised to see WTI in the teens”) and The IEA which increased its estimate of excess-supply drastically. This has dragged WTI back below $30 once again and where oil goes, stocks go…

Goldman Sachs Says No Surprise If Oil Price Drops Below $20/Bbl

“I wouldn’t be surprised if this market goes into the teens,” Head of Commodities Research Jeff Currie says in interview on Bloomberg TV.

“Once you breach storage capacity, prices have to spike below cash costs”

And IEA piled on…

The global oil surplus will be bigger than previously estimated in the first half, increasing the risk of further price losses, as OPEC members Iran and Iraq bolster production while demand growth slows, according to the International Energy Agency.

Supply may exceed consumption by an average of 1.75 million barrels a day in the period, compared with an estimate of 1.5 million last month, and the excess could swell if OPEC adds more output, the IEA said. Iran raised production in January following the removal of international sanctions, Iraqi volumes reached a record and Saudi Arabia also ramped up output. The agency trimmed estimates for global oil demand.

Oil volatility remains extremely elevated…