With 18 branded drugs on the line, patent losses this year could jeopardize $26.5 billion in annual sales from Big Pharma, projected to be the biggest fall-off until at least 2025, according to Bernstein analyst Tim Anderson…Which companies are at risk? [Read on.]

Written by Eric Sagonowsky (FiercePharma.com)

This year’s potential patent expiry damage is much more daunting than 2015 and 2016, when only 4 and 9 meds from companies in Bernstein’s coverage lost exclusivity, respectively.

Anticipated expirations for 2017 include:

Together, the 2017 patent losses and associated sales declines will “continue to pressure growth” in the industry, according to Anderson.

Back in 2012, the U.S. drug market actually contracted by 1%, tallied by the IMS Institute for Healthcare Informatics, as a wave of patent losses hit top drugmakers. It was the first time the institute had ever noted a shrink in that metric. EvaluatePharma has reported that $55 billion in total drug sales lost patent protection that year.

This time around, though, Anderson noted that about 45% of the sales at risk looking forward are for biologics, which will face bio-similar competition rather than generics. There, he said, “erosion rates will be slower,” but still “unpredictable.” Roche tops the list of drugmakers facing biosimilar threats, with Sanofi, Bristol-Myers Squibb and Lilly trailing in order.

While considering patent losses through 2025 and including the potential value of pipeline assets, Bernstein predicts that: