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Trading on the EUR/USD currency pair closed in the red on Friday. The Euro fell on the back of contradictory data from the US. In March, the US created twice fewer jobs than they had forecasted and the figures for January and February were revised downwards. At the same time, unemployment fell by 0.2% to 4.5%.

98,000 new jobs were created in the US in March outside the agricultural sector, just over half the forecasted 180,000. The figure for February was revised down from235,000 to 219,000 and for January from 238,000 to 216,000. The cumulative downwards revision for the two months came to 38,000. The January figure was revised up last month from 227,000 to 238,000.

The participation rate stayed at 63% while unemployment came down from 4.7% to 4.5% (forecast: 4.7%, previous reading: 4.7%). The index for average hourly earnings in the US came to 0.2% (forecast: 0.2%, previous reading revised from 2.0% to 0.3%).

The Euro grew by 45 points in response to the low NFP figures. The news’ effect on the market turned out to be rather inconsequential. The Euro had lost all its gains by the end of the session, falling to 1.0580 on the back of rising US bond yields.

Market expectations:

In Asia, the single currency has renewed its minimum against the greenback. At the time of writing, the Euro is selling for 1.0584 against a minimum of 1.0570. I don’t do market analyses on Mondays. After payrolls day, my forecast always looks to movements against Friday’s. The target for recovery is 1.0617.

Day’s news (GMT+3):

EURUSD rate on the hourly. Source: TradingView.

Intraday forecast: low: 1.0570, high: 1.0617, close: 1.0606.

On Friday, after the support at 1.0630 was broken, the Euro fell to the 90th degree. This isn’t a particularly important support/resistance level, so we need to be ready for a renewed minimum at 1.0555.