Trade will be at the forefront of many leaders’ minds this quarter as a new U.S. administration settles into the White House. Though U.S. President Donald Trump continues to be bogged down by congressional battles and allegations of inappropriate ties to Russia, his team will try to draw the public’s attention back to its trade agenda. To that end, Washington will work to clarify its strategy for cracking down on currency manipulation abroad, tightening the enforcement of existing trade laws and preparing to renegotiate NAFTA. But the uncertainty surrounding the White House’s intentions will linger, prompting the United States’ biggest trade partners to look for new economic relationships elsewhere.

(Stratfor)

At the same time, some will leverage security cooperation and promises of investment to get on Washington’s good side — or, at the very least, to try to fend off its punitive trade measures. China will be one of them as it uses its economic heft with Pyongyang, and the growing sense of urgency surrounding North Korea’s nuclear program, to its advantage in tense trade talks with the United States. The White House will do what it can to push for secondary sanctions against China’s stubborn neighbor, perhaps even threatening to step up its military aid to Taiwan to compel Beijing’s buy-in. But even if Washington has its way, a heavier sanctions regime will do little to slow the progress of Pyongyang’s nuclear program. The United States will have no choice, then, but to build a credible military deterrent against North Korea — a move that will only widen the rift between Washington and Beijing.

The Trump administration’s attack on a Syrian air base was designed in large part to underscore to Beijing and Pyongyang that this White House is willing to take military action if so compelled. Though the attack sent a strong signal to U.S. adversaries, it also has created complications for the United States on the Syrian battlefield with Russia. Moscow will try to use the heightened risk of collisions on the Syrian battlefield and the fight against the Islamic State to bring Washington to the negotiating table, but the United States will be limited in any concessions it would give to Russia in return. The Kremlin will be even less inclined to trust in dialogue with the West as its problems pile up at home, though arms control may be one policy area in which the two can begin to negotiate without encountering much political blowback.