It’s one thing for the Austrian Economics and precious metals crowds to warn about the corner the Federal Reserve has backed itself into. Where it must either print to continue to prop up the bubbles it has inflated, or remove the liquidity and allow them to crash.

But when even bankers begin warning about the predicament the Fed finds itself in, you can only wonder if time is finally running out on this decade-long monetary experiment.

Current Credit Suisse analyst Zoltan Pozsar, acknowledged by many as the authority on repo market dynamics, shadow liquidity and Fed balance sheet strategy, warned that the U.S. central bank may soon have to make a choice between activating an overnight facility for repurchase agreements or halting its balance-sheet reduction earlier than many market participants expect.

And, as Bloomberg reported, Pozsar said that policymakers are unlikely to pursue the option of a new facility until alternatives have been exhausted, meaning a premature end to the taper is the most likely outcome.

That the Fed would eventually have to reverse course and continue adding more liquidity at some point has always seemed an inevitability to me. For the same reasons that the Fed’s expansionary monetary policy gave the appearance that things were great while the money was being printed, the opposite effect is appearing now that the money is being removed.

Given the Fed’s history, the assumption by myself and others in the precious metals community has been that as the bubbles started to pop, the Fed would respond with more monetary easing.

Yet this is hardly the mainstream Wall Street perspective. Which makes it interesting to see that the bubbles and flaws in the Fed’s policy have become so glaring that even the bankers are becoming concerned.

Which is certainly understandable.

In the past week, Turkey has joined Argentina and Venezuela on the list of countries experiencing a currency crisis. Italy (and likely many of the other Eurozone nations) still has the same debt issues that it did a few months ago. That have only been band-aided together again with more short-term measures.

Print Friendly, PDF & Email