Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.
Forecast
Prior Observation
Consensus
Week of September 24
September 25
Chicago Fed National Manufacturing Index – August
0.20
0.13
0.20
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index
29.0
30.9
31.2
September 25
S&P Case/Shiller Index – July
Twenty City M/M
0.5%
0.5
0.5
Twenty City M/M – SA
0.1
0.1
0.1
Twenty City Y/Y
6.3
6.3
6.3
Third Quarter Twenty City Q/Q – SA
FHFA Home Price Index – July
0.3%
0.2
0.3
Consumer Confidence – September
131.7
133.4
131.7
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
19
24
20
September 26
New Home Sales – August
630K
627
630
September 27
Initial Unemployment Claims
305K
201
210
GDP – Q2
4.2%
4.2
4.3
GDP Implicit Price Deflator
3.0
3.0
3.0
International Trade in Goods – August
-72.0
-72.2
-70.8
Wholesale Inventories – August (p)
0.3%
0.6
0.2
Pending Home Sale Index – Aug
106.2
106.2
106.4
September 28
Personal Income – August
0.4%
0.3
0.4
Personal Spending
0.4
0.4
0.3
Chicago PMI – September
62.0
63.6
62.0
Michigan Consumer Sentiment – Sept (r)
100.8
100.8
108.0
Week of October 1
October 1
ISM (Mfg) – Sept
59.8
61.3
Construction Spending – August
0.5%
0.1
October 2
Auto Sales* – September
16.9M
16.72
Car Sales
5.2
5.14
Truck Sales
11.7
11.58
*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence
October 3
ADP Employment Report – September
195K
163
ISM Services – September
58.0
58.5
October 4
Factory Orders – August
0.8%
-0.8
Durable Goods Orders
1.5
-1.7
Nondurable Goods Orders
0.3
0.2
October 5
Nonfarm Payrolls – September
195K
201
Private
190
204
Manufacturing
10
-3
Unemployment
3.9%
3.9
Average Workweek
34.5HR
34.5
Average Hourly Earnings
0.2%
0.4
International Trade – August
-$49.7B
-50.1
Consumer Credit – August
$15.0B
16.6
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