We expect a ranging market today, due to the absence of market moving events, with only euro area consumer confidence the single news of interest.

Post FOMC we see a stronger USD backed by hawkish comments from the FED members that indicated either that their vote for a rate rise was close last Thursday, or that the FED should raise rates this year, instead of next which most market participants expected. Overnight action in Asia was muted due to a Japanese holiday.

EURUSD broke down the 1.1212 support and is trading at 1.1175 at time of writing. Key support is seen at 1.1165 and then 1.1080. GBPUSD still holds above 1.5475 key support and is trading at 1.5500. USDJPY rallied to 120.60 overnight with next resistance being 121.00. AUDUSD fell from 0.72 to 0.7120.

Meanwhile GOLD’s initial Bull Run after the FOMC is halted at 1139 with support levels being 1124.50 and 1116.

Trading Quote of the Day:

“The basic concept that applies to both poker and trading is that the primary objects is not winning the most hands, but rather maximizing your gains.”

Jeff Yass

EURUSD
Pivot: 1.1255
Likely scenario: Short positions below 1.1255 with targets @ 1.115 & 1.112 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1.1255 look for further upside with 1.132 & 1.1355 as targets.
Comment: The pair has validated a bearish flag pattern and remains on the downside.

GBPUSD
Pivot: 1.557
Likely scenario: Short positions below 1.557 with targets @ 1.545 & 1.539 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1.557 look for further upside with 1.566 & 1.572 as targets.
Comment: As long as the resistance at 1.557 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 1.545 remains high.

AUDUSD
Pivot: 0.718
Likely scenario: Short positions below 0.718 with targets @ 0.7105 & 0.708 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 0.718 look for further upside with 0.721 & 0.723 as targets.
Comment: As long as 0.718 is resistance, likely decline to 0.7105.