2018 Italian Elections

The Italian election must be held no later than May 20th. Therefore, it will be held in March, April, or May. It has been surprising to see the Euroskeptic movement gain so much momentum considering the relative strength of the overall economy. If the economy was weak and Sicily saw even more weakness, the election would be a rout in favor of the Euroskeptics. Italy appears to be going down the route of leaving the E.U. I’m not saying it will happen next year, but the process can begin next year.

The chart below is a great measurement tool to show how likely an Italeave is. As you can see, it shows the percentage of each parties’ voters which support the Euroskeptic movement. As you can see, the 5 Star Movement, and the Northern League are the most likely to want Italy to leave the E.U. This is important because the 5 Star Movement is leading in the polls. The Democratic party has been crashing in the polls, while the 5 Star Movement has been stable. The Forza Italia and the Northern League parties have seen an increase in support this year. Even if the voters switch from the Democratic party to Forza Italia, it’s bad for the odds of Italy staying in the E.U.

In a recent poll, the 5 Star Movement was at 28%, the Democrats were at 24%, Forza Italia was at 17%, and the Lega Norda was at 14%. If you were to extrapolate those results and the poll below, there is about 34% support for Italy leaving the E.U. Support for Italy staying in the E.U. is about 45%. That’s not including the undecided vote which supports remaining in the E.U.  If the 5 Star Movement and the Northern League formed a coalition government, it wouldn’t necessarily mean the Italeave would happen right away, but it could happen eventually. The momentum against the Democrats, who are led by Matteo Renzi, should be worrisome. One last point worth considering is that young people favor an Italeave. 51% of those under 45 want an Italeave, while only 26% of those 45 and older want an Italeave.