Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL) stock continued to falter on Tuesday, reaching its lowest level in about three months. Although the Apple earnings results for FQ1 2018 are set for release later this week, the big news for the company has been repeated articles and concerns that sales of the iPhone X are coming up far short of Apple’s and the Street’s expectations.

Now one analyst has suggested that we may never see another iPhone super cycle ever again, and that could very well mean that Apple stock is about to get very “boring.”

“Legacy models” do not make an iPhone super cycle

In a note this week, CLSA analyst Nicolas Baratte said that Apple’s “legacy” iPhone models will likely outperform in the first half of this year. That means suppliers which are exposed to older models will likely outperform suppliers focused on the iPhone X.

He also offered up metrics from Apple’s supply chain. He estim+ates fourth-quarter iPhone X builds at about 40 million as the production bottlenecks were resolved in late November. This enabled the company to satisfy holiday-related demand. However, the result of all those extra builds in December seems to have left plenty of extra iPhone X inventory at the end of the month, he added, which “should lead to a very large decline” in builds during the March and June quarters.

He estimates iPhone 8 and 8 Plus builds at about 23 million to 24 million total during Q4, but he warned that there will likely even be excess inventory of these models because demand shifted toward the “legacy” iPhone 7 and 6s. As a result, expects iPhone 8 and 8 Plus builds to fall in the March quarter as well, while iPhone SE, 6s and 7 builds are revised higher.

He added that consensus seems to expect total iPhone builds of 60 million to 62 million in the March quarter. However, his observations in Apple’s Asia supply chain suggest builds of no more than 50 million, plus about 10 million in channel inventory.

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