DailyFX Table

Ticker

Last

High

Low

Daily Change ($)

Daily Range ($)

GBP/USD

1.2921

1.2948

1.2894

1

54

Dismal prints coming out of the U.K. economy paired with mixed rhetoric from Bank of England (BoE) officials may continue to suppress the broader outlook for GBP/USD as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) appears to be on course to further normalize monetary policy over the coming months.

After voting to raise the benchmark interest rate in June, Ian McCafferty and Michael Saunders may continue to push for a 25bp-hike at the next meeting on August 3 ‘since then the economy has not slowed to the extent we feared it would last summer.’ However, with Silvana Tenreyro due to replace Kristen Forbes, the new MPC member may largely side with the majority, and the central bank doves may merely attempt to buy more time especially as Gertjan Vlieghe argues ‘a premature hike would be a bigger mistake than one that turns out to be slightly late.’

GBP/USD Daily

GBP/USD Daily Chart

Chart – Created Using Trading View

  • The failed attempt to test the May-high (1.3048) may open up the downside targets as GBP/USD extends the series of lower highs & lows from the previous week, with a break/close below the 1.2860 (61.8% retracement) hurdle opening up the next downside region of interest around 1.2630 (38.2% expansion) to 1.2680 (50% retracement) followed by the 200-Day SMA (1.2552).
  • However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) highlights the risk for range-bound conditions as the oscillator breaks out of the bearish formation from May, with the pound-dollar exchange rate largely capped by the Fibonacci overlap around 1.3090 (38.2% retracement) to 1.3120 (78.6% retracement).

    • Ticker

    Last

    High

    Low

    Daily Change ($)

    Daily Range ($)

    USOIL

    45.28

    47.21

    45.09

    1.77

    2.12

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