I get this real time Federal tax collection data every day from the US Treasury’s Daily Treasury Statement. It gives us up-to-the-minute information on withholding taxes, estimated individual and corporate income taxes, excise taxes, and others.

These tax collections tell us EXACTLY what the US economy is doing at any given point in time. There’s no need to wait for the media to report what the manipulated government economic data did last month or the month before.

We have everything we need to know in real time.

Federal Withholding Tax collections were solid in August. They gained nearly 5% versus a year ago, before inflation. That’s a good number, but if you think that’s good news for stocks, I’m here to disabuse you of that notion.

I’ll give you the details on this real time data on the economy, and show you why this good news is really bad news for the stock market and your portfolio.

Here’s what you need to know and exactly what to do next, depending on your portfolio…

Real Time Data Gives Us an Edge

Having access to the real time Fed collection data is important; it gives us a leg up in knowing what the Fed will do next. As Janet has told us over and over and over, the Fed’s decision-making is “data” dependent. However, Fedheads only consider official economic data, which they receive only a day or so before its official release. That’s hardly helpful when it applies to a period that occurred a month ago or more.

But we know what’s happening now, baby! Since the Fed has already told us what its policy intentions are, we know whether the forthcoming data will keep the Fed on the current track or divert it to something else.

The data we have today tells us that the Fed will stay on course. We’re not talking about interest rates here. As I have told you before, we’re talking about shrinking the balance sheet – that is, actually siphoning money out of the pools of cash that support rising stock prices.