At last, there are signs a sense of reality is dawning on the EU’s negotiators about the futility of trying to force the UK to agree to a divorce settlement before talking about trade. However, there are still vestiges of a hope that Britain won’t leave the EU after all. Donald Tusk, the current European Council President, indicated it was still an option as recently as this week, but these hopes are wishful thinking.

It has taken thinly-veiled threats from the UK to leave without a deal, unless actual trade talks commence by next month. You can be certain the point has been made more forcefully to EU leaders in private, as well as at the negotiating table, than admitted in public. The EU’s problem is Brussels desperately needs Britain’s annual net contribution of €8bn, which is almost the entire annual cost of running the Brussels establishment. Brexit is nothing short of a disaster for the EU’s finances, and the EU is desperate for Britain’s money. Therefore, negotiations from the EU’s side have been frozen and unable to move onto the subject of trade. Impasse. A game of chicken, to be lost by the first to panic.

The British negotiators have deliberately presented themselves as willing to be helpful. They have insisted Britain will meet her legal requirements, though they must be itemised and justified. And that will not include funding the broader EU budget, amounting to €238bn on commitments incurred but not paid for, which is the basis of Brussels’ claim on Britain. Nor will it fund Brussel’s own budget shortfall, which is most likely where any money paid over will go first.

Brussels foolishly has made no contingency plans over its finances. Theresa May in Florence offered a transition period of two years, intended to alleviate Brussels’ insolvency problem. There was no mention of a divorce settlement by the British in Florence, because Britain’s legal advice is that there is no basis for such a claim. An offer of a transition period could be delivered by Mrs. May, but a settlement without a legal basis for it is out of the question.

The EU’s negotiating position reflects a belief that Britain is considerably worse off without a trade deal. It seems the EU team still didn’t get the message in Florence, so now EU member states are being shown by Britain she is prepared to walk away from a trade deal, and rely on WTO rules. Contingency plans are now being openly discussed in the UK, and even being planned. The effect on 58 different business sectors is being assessed, not on terms set by the Remainers, but more constructively regarding the true situation. These are likely to be released in due course, at a time set by the negotiations. Lobbyists are liable to be sidelined, in favor of more positive messages.