It appears the ADP Employment report was not good enough to support fed rate-hikes as across the majors, traders are selling USDs… Gold is also surging. It appears someone is betting large that this week’s payroll data will be weak…

Dollar is being dumped against the majors…

And gold is bid…

As Bloomberg reports, ICE’s U.S. Dollar Index has tumbled from an almost two-month high set on Jan. 29, when the Bank of Japan’s decision to implement negative interest rates drove investors into the greenback.

Now, traders are refocusing their attention on the outlook for U.S. borrowing costs, with the prospect of tighter Federal Reserve policy seen to be fading amid an uneven domestic recovery and global market turmoil.

“Whoever said that the dollar may benefit from the Fed hiking rates might be disappointed,” said Roberto Mialich, a senior foreign-exchange strategist at UniCredit SpA in Milan. “If markets continue to imagine that the pace of the normalization process in the U.S. might be slower than they expected in December, when the Fed kicked off, the dollar will remain sluggish.”

The probability the Fed will boost its benchmark rate from a range of 0.25 percent to 0.5 percent this year has fallen along with oil prices. There’s a less than 50 percent chance of an increase by the central bank’s December meeting, while the odds of action by the April gathering have tumbled to 16 percent, from 56 percent at the end of last year.

As rate-hike odds collapse across the term structure… as the red shaded region shows the market’s confidence in The Fed’sforecast for rate hikes this year…