Tensions in the global stock markets appear to have calmed. In sharp contrast stands the real economic development. Even in the US there are more and more signs of an accentuated weakness (outlier jobs data aside). “Things are crazy,” says Charles Biderman summing up this bizarre situation. “We’re seeing the impact of the global slowdown on the US and that’s going to continue” adds the TrimTabs founder, and, in contrast to the mainstream view on Wall Street, he doesn’t think that the Fed is going to raise interest rates (and is more likely to start a new stimulus program). “Ultimately there will be a major correction,” he warns and any new stimulus will merely serve the drug-addicted market.

Chjristoph Gisiger, of Finanz und Wirtschaft, interviews TrimTabs’ Charles Biderman…

Mr. Biderman, the US economy is sending mixed signals. How concerning is this situation?

The global slump is impacting the US economy more significantly than people realize. Our real-time data on the economy is declining and wage growth is the lowest it’s been all year. The TrimTrabs Macroeconomic Index for the US peaked in January and has weakened recently. It was up every year since 2011 but now it’s down year to date.

Is it even thinkable that the US will fall into recession?

It’s obvious that we’re in a significant slowdown. According to the technical definition, a recession is two quarters with negative growth in a row. So will the economy grow below zero? Could be. But anyway: What’s the big difference between minus 0,1% or plus 0,1% growth given how lagged the data is from the quarterly GDP numbers?

What does this mean for the Federal Reserve and its intention to raise interest rates?

Very few people would even consider this possible. But what I really think is going to happen is that the next Fed move is not going to be a hike. The next Fed move will be another form of easing. They’re not going to call it Quantitative Easing or QE, since QE has a bad reputation by now. So they’ll call it something else. I don’t know what they are going to do exactly. But it’s not going to be a tightening. As the global economy goes into a recession and the US follows, the Fed is going to do something.