The good news is:

The Nasdaq composite (OTC) closed at an all time high Friday, new lows have disappeared and the secondaries are leading the blue chips upward.?

The Negatives

Leadership continues to narrow. 52 week new highs are far from confirming new index highs.

The first chart covers the past 6 months showing the OTC in blue and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of Nasdaq new highs (OTC NH) in green. Dashed vertical lines have been drawn on the 1st trading day of each month.

OTC NH is near its low for the past 6 months as the index hit a new high.

The next chart is similar to the one above one except it shows the S&P 500 (SPX) in red and NY NH, in green, has been calculated with NYSE data.

The SPX is just 3% off its all time high while NY NH is near its low for the past 6 months. 

The Positives

The secondaries out performed the blue chips for the second week.
New lows declined significantly while new highs increased.

The next chart covers the past 6 months showing the OTC in blue and a 40% trend (4 day EMA) of Nasdaq new highs divided by new highs + new lows (OTC HL Ratio), in red. Dashed horizontal lines have been drawn at 10% levels for the indicator; the line is solid at the 50%, neutral, level.

OTC HL Ratio went straight up last week finishing at a very strong 86%.

The next chart is similar to the one above one except it shows the SPX in red and NY HL Ratio, in blue, has been calculated with NYSE data.

NY HL Ratio also headed upward finishing the week at 68%. 

Seasonality

Next week includes the 5 trading days prior to the 3rd Friday of March during the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle. The tables below show the daily change, on a percentage basis for that period.

OTC data covers the period from 1963 to 2016 while SPX data runs from 1953 to 2018. There are summaries for both the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle and all years combined. Prior to 1953 the market traded 6 days a week so that data has been ignored.

Average returns for the coming week have been positive by all measures and stronger during the 2nd. year of the Presidential Cycle than other years.

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