Following today’s jobs report the odds of a December rate hike approached 70% and the US dollar index surged. 

December Rate Hike Odds

According to CME Fedwatch Stats, and based on futures quotes, the odds of a December hike surged to 69.8% today, from 58.1% yesterday, and a mere 4.6% a month ago following last month’s dismal jobs report. 

US Dollar Index 15-Minute Chart

US Dollar Index Monthly Chart

The last monthly close above 100 was in 2003.

The reason for the rate hike and dollar surge can be found in today’s jobs report. For details, please see Strong Payroll Bounce +271,000; December Rate Hike Likely.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock